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Inspect a retained snapshot across forecasts, indicators and scenarios.
Last refreshed 20 Oct 2026 · 16:52 UTC+3
Scenario analysis
Conditional BVAR forecasts · eight quarters
Your assumptions
Changes relative to the BVAR baseline
Choose assumptions 2 selected
3-month Euribor
Brent oil in euros
Model coverage
104 complete training equations. Two quarterly lags.
industry: Fewer than 28 complete quarters for this exact source identity
ea industry: Fewer than 28 complete quarters for this exact source identity
Baseline path · Last complete observed quarter: 2026Q2. The BVAR baseline is separate from the SG-Lasso nowcast.
GDP growth
%YoY
Quarter 8: 0.6 · 0.0 vs baseline
Headline inflation
% YoY
Quarter 8: 2.6 · 0.0 vs baseline
Unemployment
%
Quarter 8: 8.5 · 0.0 vs baseline
Construction confidence
balance
Quarter 8: -20.4 · 0.0 vs baseline
Constraints apply simultaneously and end after the selected duration. Shading includes innovation uncertainty at fixed fitted parameters. Statistical co-movement is not causal identification.