Economic report

Quarterly growth slows; annual outlook improves.

GDP rose 0.3% q/q and 1.4% y/y in Q2; the preceding quarter grew 0.7%. The September release revised the Q2 q/q estimate down from 0.4%.

Exports grew 6.1% q/q while domestic demand fell 3.7%. These are component growth rates, not contributions to GDP.

Real productivity per hour rose 2.3% y/y in Q2 after 1.8% in Q1. This slower-moving evidence is separate from the forecast.

A vessel delivery and defence timing affect the quarterly mix; stronger exports do not yet establish broad household demand.

Private investment rises; public deliveries reverse.

Q2 private investment rose 0.5% q/q; public investment fell 35.3%, after +31.4% in Q1. Total investment fell 8.5%.

Residential investment fell 2.4% q/q and other building investment fell 2.7%. Machinery, transport and weapon systems fell 23.4%; these volatile categories should not be read as a broad productivity shock.

EK’s June survey of 851 firms indicated planned manufacturing investment growth of about 6% for 2026, fixed investment growth of about 11%, and a services intention balance of +18. September order books were unchanged; production expectations eased slightly.

Public investment is lumpy and intentions can be postponed. Construction remains a counterweight.

Retail rises this month; three-month trend falls.

August retail volume rose 0.7% m/m, but the latest three-month average fell 0.6% from the preceding three months. Household consumption was flat q/q in Q2 and 1.1% higher y/y.

Seasonally adjusted confidence fell to −5.1 in September from −3.4. Its three-month average improved to −4.7 from −9.5. Own finances and major-purchase intentions weakened this month.

The household net saving rate fell to 4.3% in Q2 from 6.2%. Real adjusted disposable income was 0.9% below a year earlier. The income measure includes social transfers in kind; it is not simply cash income or wages.

An improved confidence average coexists with the latest decline. Saving less can support spending temporarily without stronger income.

Unemployment eases; quarterly employment falls.

Harmonised unemployment fell to 9.9% in August from 10.5%; youth unemployment eased to 22.8% from 23.4%. Both are seasonally adjusted shares of the respective labour force.

Q2 national-accounts employment fell about 0.8% q/q. Separately, the August national labour-force survey recorded 34,000 more employed people aged 15–74 than a year earlier; its unemployment trend was 10.1%.

One improving month does not erase high youth unemployment or the weaker quarterly employment level.

Energy lifts headline; core is unchanged.

September headline HICP was 2.6% y/y after 2.4%; core excluding energy and food was 1.4%, unchanged.

Energy inflation rose to 12.8%; food to 2.3%; services to 1.6%. Non-energy industrial goods slowed to 0.8%. Component rates identify direction but are not percentage-point contributions.

Contained core inflation argues against treating the energy surge as a generalised domestic-price shock.

What to watch

Does the household recovery broaden? Employment and real income need to support spending, not only a lower saving rate.

Do intentions become output? Watch private investment, orders and productivity alongside volatile public deliveries.

Does energy feed through? Watch core prices and borrowing rates together.