Inspect a retained snapshot across forecasts, indicators and scenarios.
Nowcasting
GDP growth and HICP inflation · sparse-group Lasso
Issued estimate
Euro area · 2026Q4
Year-on-year · SG-Lasso
Indicative 80% range: -0.8 to 3.6%Snapshot available from 20 Oct 2026 · 16:52 UTC+3. Indicative ranges use revised-data errors, without historical PIT calibration.
Daily nowcast history
Last issued estimate per UTC day · same target period
5 days with issued estimates. Missing days remain gaps.
Latest data releases
Observed updates and their effect on the selected nowcast
| Release / input | Reference period | Latest value | Recorded | Nowcast effect, pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflationRevision · 1 changed period | Sept 2026 | 3.8 % y/y | 16 Oct 2026First seen by AEIS | — |
| EnergyRevision · 1 changed period | Sept 2026 | 18.9 % y/y | 16 Oct 2026First seen by AEIS | — |
| FoodRevision · 1 changed period | Sept 2026 | 1.3 % y/y | 16 Oct 2026First seen by AEIS | — |
| Services pricesRevision · 1 changed period | Sept 2026 | 3.2 % y/y | 16 Oct 2026First seen by AEIS | — |
Effects cover all changed observations for that input between issued snapshots. A dash means no comparable effect is available for this target. Source publication and first-seen dates are distinct.
What changed the forecast?
Change since the previous issued snapshot · percentage points
No change at the displayed precision.
Input effects include new observations and revisions, evaluated with the previous fitted model. Calendar and refit effects are separate. These are model contributions, not causal shocks or survey surprises.
Inputs behind this estimate
44% of current lag features are missing and use training-sample medians. Unsupported series are omitted.
View omitted inputs (5)
Industrial confidence: Latest valid input is stale
Services confidence: Latest valid input is stale
Construction confidence: Latest valid input is stale
Consumer confidence: Latest valid input is stale
Euro-area industrial production: Exact input unavailable
Model checks
Chronological diagnostics · revised data
The tuning sample is also used for these diagnostics. This is not an independent historical PIT backtest or a live accuracy claim.
How the model works